In a previous post, I had taken note of how the market for the MMO has changed. We cannot look back at how MMO launches use to be, and compare the genre today to that happier, simpler time.
Luckily, a comment from that post goes so far as to prove my point even further. (Props to Carson 63000 of Eldergoth, who had this to say...)
"Successful monthly sub games, like EverQuest, Ultima Online, Asheron's Call, Final Fantasy XI, Eve and WoW, do not steadily increase over the first month and then drop off as a proportion of players decide not to pay more to continue.
Successful monthly sub games have more new players coming in than they have players deciding not to continue. Successful monthly sub games have more players after a year than they did after a month.
I agree that Rift seems to be following the predictable curve set by virtually every MMO in the last five years. But this really isn't the only direction a game can go, and it's not one to aspire to, even if a bunch of box sales and a one month "churn and burn" is enough to pay for your development"
I think we can look upon his comment and really note the issue with this comment...
Ultima Online, EverQuest, Asheron's Call, Final Fantasy XI, Eve Online and WoW
1997, 1999, 1999, 2002, 2003, 2004
What do we see here? Mainly, these are the launch dates for each of these games. Each MMO listed is 7 years of age or older. Why use games that were in a market dominated by RTS's, Diablo style RPG's or turn based roleplay (Final Fantasy) as a comparison of todays MMO market? If we look at these titles, each was a unique in the field; heck, console games were not even the norm at that time. If an MMO launched, it was something of interest.
Now, we have a world dominated by million sellers being straight console, FPS styled shooters and World of Warcraft or the "churn and burn" MMO, as he calls them.
All MMO's since WoW have not garnered any success beyond several hundred thousand subs, with EvE being the last on that list (besides WoW) to hold on and bring in more subs since launch (that we have any real data for).
No matter the situation, this genre is toasted thanks to WoW. Every MMO from this point on will be compared to WoW. Every game (MMO, I should say) that launches without as much product content as WoW has will be criticized and ostracized for not having WoW's gameplay...period.
Comparing this market now to the market of 7 years ago does not help any argument that "This MMO is fail" due to retention not being WoW sized. Name one MMO since WoW that has continued to grow and is bigger now, than it was at launch (without going free to play...*cough* LOTRO who did NOT expand further until they changed *cough*) and THEN we can talk.
Please note, we never touch on discussions of Asian grinders or Free to Plays, as we cannot get a real data read out of how many are true revenue generators, etc. We are strictly talking the western market and the syndrome of the launch of a AAA title.
For now, just like the console FPS shooters, the PC is flooded with so many MMO's still running or in development...I mean, head to MMORPG.com and just look at their game list. So many to choose from AND many more to come.
Personally, I think any developer that launches an MMO now has several objectives.
First, lets sell the box. We make back our development costs and can continue to develop. Next, retain a good number of subs (as keeps being proven to us by low end games like Age of Conan, Warhammer Online or any other title in the last 5 years). 100k sounds good, but if you have more, why ....thats just peachy keen. Now, work your sales mojo, offer free trials, return trials, develop, fix, stabilize, add content....and hope that as players leave, others come in to replace the slack. If you get lucky, you could get out an expansion and then start the whole cycle again.
Now, as the player, you can, as I keep seeing on every blog, twitter or forum post...try to enjoy the market and games as they are and pray to whatever God, Gods or Spirit you follow that Star Wars: The Old Republic is that savior you hope it is.
Well, why shouldn't it be...so many other IP based MMO's have been major successes in the last 5 years (/snark).
Truly, we need to understand that the words "WoW Killer" is just not a reality, and until something unique and awe inspiring happens in this genre, shaking the very foundation the MMO stands on, we need to look at each MMO release critically without the added..."Is it like WoW?".
If Halo, Gears of War, Crysis, Call of Duty...and...(damn, don't have enough fingers or toes to count the FPS's available) can all co-exist, why can't the MMO market live the same way.
Showing posts with label Lord of the Rings Online. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Lord of the Rings Online. Show all posts
Tuesday, April 19, 2011
Wednesday, April 13, 2011
Spectating Rift:Is that a decline in your pocket or...
So, reading a post on the MMORPG forum turned up this little ditty...
"XFire shows a 20% drop of played hours [on Rift] compared to the peak one month ago. So as predicted this latest "great" game is starting to lose ground.
How much you wanna bet that by next month it will be at 50% of peak?"
Why would you believe that? Unless you want it to be so.
It is almost like the players are ready to pounce at ANY bad news and turn it into the ultimate doom. Using any tool at their disposal, they can predict the closure of Rift within a years time. Sales? You bet (look at VGChartz...OH NOES, Rift only has sold less than 200k copies), X-Fire? Shard lists? You name it.
I would prefer to look at it differently.
Right now, the MMO market is flooded with good titles (and yes, some pretty bad ones), but the fact remains; you want to play an MMO, you have some choice now. Throw that stick, don't poke your eye out, and there...hit another MMO.
Of course, the overall "sales" or "success" situation is not helped by the elephant in the room (World of Warcraft) that has this horrible addiction issue for most players. When I hear that a person cannot leave WoW due to how much money and time they have invested into it, then yes...it will be hard to get this type of player to move on to a new title.
Why is it that a game is not allowed time to prosper and grow, and must be a huge success out of the gate. The market was never this way to begin with. Again, back to VGChartz and their WoW numbers. Note the steady decline of sales. Yet, it WAS persistent sales, but fell by volume week after week for it's 10 week first run.
But, then it happened. Word of mouth took the game to the next level. People wondered what the hubbub was about. What was this whole MMO "thang". The growth of WoW could be noted as the growth of the genre and not so much this one game.
Right now, Rift or ANY launch MMO will immediately be given to the WoW bear to eat, and players expect as much content, stability and playability as a six year old game. And we cannot change that mentality.
Really, is a 20% decline from a single gaming service like X-Fire indicative of the overall market share? The fact it is just one piece of the pie tells me no. Look at the Raptr numbers, which show a less than 10% loss. Look at the shard listings and see how a majority of servers are still at high...and even some queues.
Decline will really not be noted until we see merges or closure of servers.
But, can even servers being shut down announce the end of Rift? All we need to do is look at the anecdotal evidence to the contrary to see that Rift can stick around and have great success...if they just persist.
Lord of the Rings Online is our perfect example of a major success story. Indie style developer, went big time with LOTRO. But, if we would note LOTRO success, it was not hopping to begin with. When it launched in 2007, it did not get further than #24 on the X-Fire charts. By near the end of 2008 it was laying off staff and free to play was but a whispered secret that no one wanted their game to be. On launch, LOTRO only sold 172,000 copies in it's first quarter...THATS IT.
Yet, 4 years later, Turbine is lauded as a major progenitor of the Free to Play for Triple AAA products.
Now, if Rift was a major "wreck" of a game, then yes, I could clearly see them falling and tumbling. For that example, look to Age of Conan. This was the game everyone required to fail. Predictions were pasted all over the blogs, various websites, forums...aw, heck, Kotaku actually SHUT THEM DOWN due to posting a fluff piece by a hater.
"Suckered in by the newbie zone, 700,000 souls subscribed. Faced with the rest of the game after level 20, they unsubscribed. It all lasted a bit over two months."
Using this criteria, AoC should have been long gone in Year One. Three years later, and still moving along with another MMO in development.
Aion is another "hated" MMO. Many a player wrote the game off as the biggest failure of it's year. YET, the game still pops into our top 5 of listed MMO's, and even has times where it spikes higher on X-Fire and Raptr, due to returning players. NCSoft financials list the game as stable...and if anything, was the game that gave them help in moving Guild Wars 2 forward and money for NCSofts next development title, Blade and Soul.
The MMO market, if anything, has become like the music market. More artists, more songs, equal more players vying for the kids dollars. Why can't all MMO's co-exist?
Play the game you like, but if anything, if you feel Rift is on the downward spiral, maybe it is you the player that is actually done with the genre?
Let me tell you about Dragon Age and Consoles...
"XFire shows a 20% drop of played hours [on Rift] compared to the peak one month ago. So as predicted this latest "great" game is starting to lose ground.
How much you wanna bet that by next month it will be at 50% of peak?"
Why would you believe that? Unless you want it to be so.
It is almost like the players are ready to pounce at ANY bad news and turn it into the ultimate doom. Using any tool at their disposal, they can predict the closure of Rift within a years time. Sales? You bet (look at VGChartz...OH NOES, Rift only has sold less than 200k copies), X-Fire? Shard lists? You name it.
I would prefer to look at it differently.
Right now, the MMO market is flooded with good titles (and yes, some pretty bad ones), but the fact remains; you want to play an MMO, you have some choice now. Throw that stick, don't poke your eye out, and there...hit another MMO.
Of course, the overall "sales" or "success" situation is not helped by the elephant in the room (World of Warcraft) that has this horrible addiction issue for most players. When I hear that a person cannot leave WoW due to how much money and time they have invested into it, then yes...it will be hard to get this type of player to move on to a new title.
Why is it that a game is not allowed time to prosper and grow, and must be a huge success out of the gate. The market was never this way to begin with. Again, back to VGChartz and their WoW numbers. Note the steady decline of sales. Yet, it WAS persistent sales, but fell by volume week after week for it's 10 week first run.
But, then it happened. Word of mouth took the game to the next level. People wondered what the hubbub was about. What was this whole MMO "thang". The growth of WoW could be noted as the growth of the genre and not so much this one game.
Right now, Rift or ANY launch MMO will immediately be given to the WoW bear to eat, and players expect as much content, stability and playability as a six year old game. And we cannot change that mentality.
Really, is a 20% decline from a single gaming service like X-Fire indicative of the overall market share? The fact it is just one piece of the pie tells me no. Look at the Raptr numbers, which show a less than 10% loss. Look at the shard listings and see how a majority of servers are still at high...and even some queues.
Decline will really not be noted until we see merges or closure of servers.
But, can even servers being shut down announce the end of Rift? All we need to do is look at the anecdotal evidence to the contrary to see that Rift can stick around and have great success...if they just persist.
Lord of the Rings Online is our perfect example of a major success story. Indie style developer, went big time with LOTRO. But, if we would note LOTRO success, it was not hopping to begin with. When it launched in 2007, it did not get further than #24 on the X-Fire charts. By near the end of 2008 it was laying off staff and free to play was but a whispered secret that no one wanted their game to be. On launch, LOTRO only sold 172,000 copies in it's first quarter...THATS IT.
Yet, 4 years later, Turbine is lauded as a major progenitor of the Free to Play for Triple AAA products.
Now, if Rift was a major "wreck" of a game, then yes, I could clearly see them falling and tumbling. For that example, look to Age of Conan. This was the game everyone required to fail. Predictions were pasted all over the blogs, various websites, forums...aw, heck, Kotaku actually SHUT THEM DOWN due to posting a fluff piece by a hater.
"Suckered in by the newbie zone, 700,000 souls subscribed. Faced with the rest of the game after level 20, they unsubscribed. It all lasted a bit over two months."
Using this criteria, AoC should have been long gone in Year One. Three years later, and still moving along with another MMO in development.
Aion is another "hated" MMO. Many a player wrote the game off as the biggest failure of it's year. YET, the game still pops into our top 5 of listed MMO's, and even has times where it spikes higher on X-Fire and Raptr, due to returning players. NCSoft financials list the game as stable...and if anything, was the game that gave them help in moving Guild Wars 2 forward and money for NCSofts next development title, Blade and Soul.
The MMO market, if anything, has become like the music market. More artists, more songs, equal more players vying for the kids dollars. Why can't all MMO's co-exist?
Play the game you like, but if anything, if you feel Rift is on the downward spiral, maybe it is you the player that is actually done with the genre?
Let me tell you about Dragon Age and Consoles...
Friday, October 8, 2010
Good Openedge - The Free 2 Play Model Can Work
Just read the report on the GDCO 2010 conference for Turbines report. You can catch the news here.
Turbine GDCO Report
"At GDCO, the studio [Turbine] announced that revenues from Lord of the Rings Online have doubled in the past month since switching to a free-to-play hybrid model."
Everyone knows how I feel about LOTRO, as I have stated in the past...the game is just not that good. Period. I could sit and point out the many flaws in gameplay and style, and most would even agree.
But, when it came to them changing to Free 2 Play, I was on onboard, and had even stated I could see their business doubling thanks to this change. Looks like I was spot on for that.
If Turbine has one thing right, it is how to treat their customers and how to make a game profitable. They pulled a rabbit out of their hat with DDO, and took a chance with a grade A (according to many) MMO and converting it to a less popular style of monetary arrangement in many MMO circles.
Most associate Free 2 Play with low quality. But, LOTRO is not too low quality wise (just in the aspect of character models and UI...which I understand has been tweaked some, but still needs work) , and Turbine took a big chance. Especially with the type of community that LOTRO exhibits, the belief was going F2P would be it's downfall. If anything, I applaud their move and am glad they have made headway. I hope they use this money wisely and apply it to a better animation engine and model designers, along with UI creators who understand DPI.
This leaves the window open now. Can this model succeed if done right? Want an example of NOT doing it right? Head on over to EQ2X and take a look.
You can't inundate your customer base with charges left and right. Also, there has to be a way to earn the same goods that can be bought in your store. Do this or alienate a large audience.
SOE's move to place the new "free" audience on other servers was genius...until they saw that their core audience wanted more people to play with, and saw an emptying of their pay servers...ouch. In so many words, don't separate your audience if you don't have a large audience to begin with.
So, is Free 2 Play the way to go all the time? I still feel some games cannot work like this.
Take Warhammer Online. So many think it needs to go Free due to it's low populations. I disagree. The niche it inhabits does not bode well for a cash shop. Buying into a PvP oriented game is a big no-no to me.
But, the game could do with some price "tweaking". Changes to pricing structures for their "Tiers" is a start. Then charge for aspects that can be earned. Horses and Mounts could be one piece. New addons like their upcoming RvR packs is another.
The fact that PvE is taking a back seat to their PvP also means F2P would be disastrous. To top it off, their PvE is so broken to begin with...more work would have to be done in that arena before a F2P model could even look WAR in the eye.
PvE gameplay is 100% congruent to Free 2 Play in my opinion. People will be willing to buy what they need or want. But, you must offer some way to have the player gain these same items...just make sure it takes them a long time.
I welcome our new pricing models and hope it leads to more innovative ways to pay and play.
Turbine GDCO Report
"At GDCO, the studio [Turbine] announced that revenues from Lord of the Rings Online have doubled in the past month since switching to a free-to-play hybrid model."
Everyone knows how I feel about LOTRO, as I have stated in the past...the game is just not that good. Period. I could sit and point out the many flaws in gameplay and style, and most would even agree.
But, when it came to them changing to Free 2 Play, I was on onboard, and had even stated I could see their business doubling thanks to this change. Looks like I was spot on for that.
If Turbine has one thing right, it is how to treat their customers and how to make a game profitable. They pulled a rabbit out of their hat with DDO, and took a chance with a grade A (according to many) MMO and converting it to a less popular style of monetary arrangement in many MMO circles.
Most associate Free 2 Play with low quality. But, LOTRO is not too low quality wise (just in the aspect of character models and UI...which I understand has been tweaked some, but still needs work) , and Turbine took a big chance. Especially with the type of community that LOTRO exhibits, the belief was going F2P would be it's downfall. If anything, I applaud their move and am glad they have made headway. I hope they use this money wisely and apply it to a better animation engine and model designers, along with UI creators who understand DPI.
This leaves the window open now. Can this model succeed if done right? Want an example of NOT doing it right? Head on over to EQ2X and take a look.
You can't inundate your customer base with charges left and right. Also, there has to be a way to earn the same goods that can be bought in your store. Do this or alienate a large audience.
SOE's move to place the new "free" audience on other servers was genius...until they saw that their core audience wanted more people to play with, and saw an emptying of their pay servers...ouch. In so many words, don't separate your audience if you don't have a large audience to begin with.
So, is Free 2 Play the way to go all the time? I still feel some games cannot work like this.
Take Warhammer Online. So many think it needs to go Free due to it's low populations. I disagree. The niche it inhabits does not bode well for a cash shop. Buying into a PvP oriented game is a big no-no to me.
But, the game could do with some price "tweaking". Changes to pricing structures for their "Tiers" is a start. Then charge for aspects that can be earned. Horses and Mounts could be one piece. New addons like their upcoming RvR packs is another.
The fact that PvE is taking a back seat to their PvP also means F2P would be disastrous. To top it off, their PvE is so broken to begin with...more work would have to be done in that arena before a F2P model could even look WAR in the eye.
PvE gameplay is 100% congruent to Free 2 Play in my opinion. People will be willing to buy what they need or want. But, you must offer some way to have the player gain these same items...just make sure it takes them a long time.
I welcome our new pricing models and hope it leads to more innovative ways to pay and play.
Monday, May 10, 2010
Gaming the Xfire - Latest Update
Wow. What a weekend. Major disturbances in the force of the charts really made me feel that we needed a post to discuss the latest movers and shakers on the Xfire charts.
I will be referencing an article I did at the end of March, thanks to a press release from Cryptic and their newest MMO, Star Trek Online - STO (SOURCE). The data was sound, and we had something to base some numbers off of. The Xfire charts hit a home run, and calculated almost precisely the number of subs STO had, compared to the statement by Cryptic.
As I make notes and do the calcs, just refer to the previous article if you have any questions in how it relates.
The reason I wanted to do the new numbers is that starting this week is, of course, the Age of Conan expansion launch; Rise of the Godslayer. I think this will have a major impact on a lot of MMO's. And as you will see, it really made some adjustments. This will also allow us to see how people are feeling about the new expansion, and how subs "could" be affected.
As well, several other news tidbits made some changes to sub counts. For example, STO had a free return for old subs and introduced a new free trial.
Warhammer Online had another blow struck against it as well, thanks to a set of court papers being filed by Games Workshop against the fan site Warhammer Alliance.GW really has nothing to do with Mythic and WAR, but it is the same IP. The issue is that so many think it DOES relate to WAR and EA/Mythic...and thus, we see what the outcome is of this latest wound. Watch them bleed...
Lets start with some OTHER surprises first.
I will be referencing an article I did at the end of March, thanks to a press release from Cryptic and their newest MMO, Star Trek Online - STO (SOURCE). The data was sound, and we had something to base some numbers off of. The Xfire charts hit a home run, and calculated almost precisely the number of subs STO had, compared to the statement by Cryptic.
As I make notes and do the calcs, just refer to the previous article if you have any questions in how it relates.
The reason I wanted to do the new numbers is that starting this week is, of course, the Age of Conan expansion launch; Rise of the Godslayer. I think this will have a major impact on a lot of MMO's. And as you will see, it really made some adjustments. This will also allow us to see how people are feeling about the new expansion, and how subs "could" be affected.
As well, several other news tidbits made some changes to sub counts. For example, STO had a free return for old subs and introduced a new free trial.
Warhammer Online had another blow struck against it as well, thanks to a set of court papers being filed by Games Workshop against the fan site Warhammer Alliance.GW really has nothing to do with Mythic and WAR, but it is the same IP. The issue is that so many think it DOES relate to WAR and EA/Mythic...and thus, we see what the outcome is of this latest wound. Watch them bleed...
Lets start with some OTHER surprises first.
Lord of the Rings Online
This was really interesting. Especially seeing that Codemasters was offering a "Free Return Weekend". But, it looks like other games are in the spotlight and took the stage away from this critical darling and fan favorite.
Calcs show that subs dropped a bit. 1518 x 120.05 = 182,235 subs. Previously LOTRO had 213,689. This is a considerable drop. I will keep track of this, and see if it is ongoing or just a fluke. For now, looks like age is catching up to LOTRO.
Aion
Another interesting change here. Now, mind you, Aion is STILL a top 10 game, so it does not affect it too much. But, it is also a bit of a drop.
If we do the Calcs, we get - 3662 x 120.05 = 439,623 subs. Last check we had 463,873.
Again, a sizable change. But, I also know that some numbers will be down. Why? HELLO, summer on the way, warm weather. We are bound to see these types of lower numbers. But, it is still interesting.Age of Conan
Not so surprising. But, I am assured that Funcom has to be one happy camper right now. The numbers continue to rise. Lets take a look.
Very nice. 994 x120.05 = 119, 329 subs. This not only is above the previous articles numbers (81,274), but as well, I did a post discussing the rise May 3rd, and they had roughly 110k players (War of the Failures).
If Funcom can launch Rise of the Godslayer tomorrow, and not have any MAJOR concerns, they could be the comeback kid of 2010.
Warhammer Online
While Funcom may be the "Comeback Kid", WAR and Mythic are the kid being bullied on every corner. Talk about several weeks of pain for these guys. And this past week culminating in another hit with the Games Workshop court order against WHA (Warhammer Alliance), it looks like things are growing worse. Talk about being put on "life support".
These are actually some of the worse numbers for WAR since I started watching Xfire several years ago with Age of Conan's launch. 535 x 120.05 = 64,226. That is a drop from the previous article (74,551) and as well from last weeks post (War of the Failures, calc'd at 70k).
All I can say is if the new patch does not hit by at least next week, servers will be critically empty. Since I am still playing, I saw a weekend of a low number of scenario's being done and as well, we started some alts in the Elf region, and was able to flip the whole zone in Tier 1 to Order with just the 3 of us. Yes, 3 people took a whole zone....
Here is a prayer for ya WAR...I hardly knew ye'
Dungeons & Dragons Online
Well, this could only last so long. We see a minor drop in numbers here.
The calcs say 766 x 120.05 = 91,958. Not too bad. But, last post had DDO at 111,647. So it looks like interest is waning a bit. But, there is no doubt that Turbine still has to be enjoying some great cash flow off this title. Those kinda stats are not anything to laugh about. And having two games doing decent numbers probably doesn't hurt either.
Star Trek Online
Give something away and they will come. Free time for old subs, new free trial...all adding up to a small rise in numbers.
Mind you, this is NOT a rise from my last post, but a rise from what happened after the first 30 days. STO had fallen to close to 200 to 300 players and was in the low #100's and had even fallen at one point into the low #200's on the charts.
Todays calcs put them at 527 x 120.05 = 63,266. And as we can even see on the charting, it was at #92 previously, but shot up to #88. I expect this to rise a little bit more. But, overall, STO did not do well, and that is too bad. It looks gorgeous thanks to screenshots from @Longasc (on Twitter), but must be missing some appeal to a majority of MMO players.
Like I said, this was quite a bit of a change for a lot of titles. Not sure what is up yet, and as the summer progresses, I expect more drops. But, some titles I think are hurting (WAR, STO), but we may see a return on Age of Conan. I wish them luck tomorrow.
Ok, thats it for this week. Watch my Twitter account if you want more info.
Cheers
Monday, March 29, 2010
The Xfire Game
Last week, a small group of us had a Twitter-scussion over the validity of Xfire as a tool beyond the mere use as a glorified chat program.
Xfire has the capability to track players time in games of their choice. Though not perfect, it does give a glimpse of these players (people who load Xfire) favorite games.
As far as MMO's are concerned, I feel it can be used to do more in respect to players and times.We can also track sub numbers for MMO's in a general capacity. This would be more in line of "paying" commercial based games, by either a large distributor or game developer.
So, a while back, I posted an article (2008) which took a noted news story about the current World of Warcraft population in the US and created a formula to help see how many players can be calculated in all other MMO's based on that formula. What happened is a pretty close and accurate picture of players in various MMO's, and since that time I still have been able to use that formula to this day. Check out the article to see a more in depth discussion of that calculation.
This really took flight when last week Cryptic noted just how many people were playing Star Trek Online. When I saw this, I thought it was time again to try the formula. What happened was a pretty scary comparison that was almost completely accurate to their posted numbers. Cryptic noted a 100k player base. I did my formula and got 96k almost 97k. This of course was based on a Wednesday reading. Sunday numbers are usually more accurate as this IS the busiest day for all MMO's. So, I thought, maybe we need to really do an in depth analysis using Sunday numbers.
Now, I never claimed that the numbers are 100%, accurate, They are a pretty close representation though of what has either been discussed by news pundits or forum goers for total subs of some MMO's. And if a company ever announces their numbers, as seen by the Cryptic count for STO, it can garner a pretty darn accurate calculation.
Since a lot of companies do not release this data, the "Xfire Game" has really become a good way to see just how well this works.
Today, I will do a run of the Sunday count for Xfire for several games being discussed lately. I pick these for the very reason we need a tool like Xfire and my calc. These companies have not, or do not release their numbers. If they do, it is rare.
As well, I will add Aion, as eventually we WILL get numbers (NCSoft does their numbers about once or twice a year), and of course STO, since we did get a report recently.
Lets see how they fare.
The calc rate is multiple the number of Xfire users x 120.05. Using the calc system we see - 980 x 120.05 = 117,649 subs. Over 100k. Interesting.
Our calc system states...3864 x 120.05 = 463,873 subs. Basically almost as much as Lineage 2 had been stated to have at one point and time (over 600k in 2007). And as always since it's launch, in the top 10 on Xfire. Now, I am sorry, but this does NOT take into account how many of those subs are gold sellers...
Calc says? 1780 x 120.05 = 213,689 subs. Still a good sub rate and steady. Wish Turbine would just come out and tell us. For me, I think a company should be proud of that many players in todays MMO market. Since I have been doing these calcs, LOTRO has consistently done this number of players...except when they release an expansion, then there is a jump.
677 x 120.05 = 81,274 subs.
If we read the report for Funcom in their financials, they state "stabilization". This Xfire data corroborates that. They continue to hold this area in the Xfire ratings AND have stabilized in subs if Xfire is to be trusted.
621 x 120.05 = 74,551 subs. Could it be possible that with 4 servers and 50k plus players, any MMO could be profitable? Seeing Age of Conan has held to this area and is still afloat, I may not doubt it now. Especially if we watch Age of Conan with the expansion and new financials report. How will these numbers increase? I will watch these two games closely. They are thought to be case studies of failures for their time. Yet, I also feel they are also the most improved games over time, unlike some others on this list.
If we read further into the press release this came from, we also see these words..."paid subscriber base has more than doubled"....AHA. DDO at one point...before the "Free to Play" model, was noted as either having 25k or 50k players subbing. What does Xfire say they have now?
930 x 120.05 = 111,647 subs. So, 1 million players, yes, but I still say 100k plus subscribers paying a monthly fee. Now, this also does not take into account how many people pay for extras (and are not subbed). I still will say it. This hybrid model that DDO has is truly the way other games with low subs should go. We are guaranteed that Turbine is turning some very nice profits right now.
293 x 120.05 = 35,175 subs. Now, is this really profitable? Has the game been out long enough to make back it's money? I guess it does help that they force players to repurchase EVERY expansion every time they launch a new one (almost 40 bucks a box every 6-8 months). Maybe all along EQ2 has made it's money off of the two-boxers and those who purchase new expansions at launch. For now, low player rates, but dedicated players keep EQ2 afloat.
The argument I keep hearing is Xfire cannot be used as a valid tool for these numbers. I will continue to disagree, as these numbers clearly show a lot of matching data with what we know about these games. We can never be 100% sure, but if I need to know how well a game is doing, I can look at Xfire and get a rough guesstimate.
The Calc I have continues to show some interesting data to this day, and as long as we have this tool, I will continue to try and use it to help me see how well these games are doing.
If you are ever worried about if you should play a game depending on if there are enough players to group with, etc, then try Xfire and see if it is doing well there.
Cheers
Xfire has the capability to track players time in games of their choice. Though not perfect, it does give a glimpse of these players (people who load Xfire) favorite games.
As far as MMO's are concerned, I feel it can be used to do more in respect to players and times.We can also track sub numbers for MMO's in a general capacity. This would be more in line of "paying" commercial based games, by either a large distributor or game developer.
So, a while back, I posted an article (2008) which took a noted news story about the current World of Warcraft population in the US and created a formula to help see how many players can be calculated in all other MMO's based on that formula. What happened is a pretty close and accurate picture of players in various MMO's, and since that time I still have been able to use that formula to this day. Check out the article to see a more in depth discussion of that calculation.
This really took flight when last week Cryptic noted just how many people were playing Star Trek Online. When I saw this, I thought it was time again to try the formula. What happened was a pretty scary comparison that was almost completely accurate to their posted numbers. Cryptic noted a 100k player base. I did my formula and got 96k almost 97k. This of course was based on a Wednesday reading. Sunday numbers are usually more accurate as this IS the busiest day for all MMO's. So, I thought, maybe we need to really do an in depth analysis using Sunday numbers.
Now, I never claimed that the numbers are 100%, accurate, They are a pretty close representation though of what has either been discussed by news pundits or forum goers for total subs of some MMO's. And if a company ever announces their numbers, as seen by the Cryptic count for STO, it can garner a pretty darn accurate calculation.
Since a lot of companies do not release this data, the "Xfire Game" has really become a good way to see just how well this works.
Today, I will do a run of the Sunday count for Xfire for several games being discussed lately. I pick these for the very reason we need a tool like Xfire and my calc. These companies have not, or do not release their numbers. If they do, it is rare.
As well, I will add Aion, as eventually we WILL get numbers (NCSoft does their numbers about once or twice a year), and of course STO, since we did get a report recently.
Lets see how they fare.
Star Trek Online
We will start here. As we KNOW how many are playing thanks to Cryptic's recent announcement of over 100k players, it will be a good jumping off point to see how our calc is working.
The calc rate is multiple the number of Xfire users x 120.05. Using the calc system we see - 980 x 120.05 = 117,649 subs. Over 100k. Interesting.
Aion
Next, I want to show a game that we know has a large population based on reports from NCSoft. Now, of course, most forum goers or blog gurus call this game a failure. I would beg to differ, and I believe Xfires data shows this.
Our calc system states...3864 x 120.05 = 463,873 subs. Basically almost as much as Lineage 2 had been stated to have at one point and time (over 600k in 2007). And as always since it's launch, in the top 10 on Xfire. Now, I am sorry, but this does NOT take into account how many of those subs are gold sellers...
Lord of the Rings Online
Over and over it has been stated that LOTRO is a good "200k" sub game. I for one believe it, and Xfire really corroborates this.
Calc says? 1780 x 120.05 = 213,689 subs. Still a good sub rate and steady. Wish Turbine would just come out and tell us. For me, I think a company should be proud of that many players in todays MMO market. Since I have been doing these calcs, LOTRO has consistently done this number of players...except when they release an expansion, then there is a jump.
Age of Conan
A lot of discussion has been traveling the blogosphere as well as the forums that AoC has progressed beyond the old days, and is a more stable game. Some servers look busy according to the forumites, and Funcom has been able to keep it afloat (though financials have said otherwise). How do the Xfire stats look?
677 x 120.05 = 81,274 subs.
If we read the report for Funcom in their financials, they state "stabilization". This Xfire data corroborates that. They continue to hold this area in the Xfire ratings AND have stabilized in subs if Xfire is to be trusted.
Warhammer Online
My new favorite. Recently Bioware has made comments about the Mythic division and how WAR is actually "profitable". How many subs does a profitable game need? What does Xfire say...
621 x 120.05 = 74,551 subs. Could it be possible that with 4 servers and 50k plus players, any MMO could be profitable? Seeing Age of Conan has held to this area and is still afloat, I may not doubt it now. Especially if we watch Age of Conan with the expansion and new financials report. How will these numbers increase? I will watch these two games closely. They are thought to be case studies of failures for their time. Yet, I also feel they are also the most improved games over time, unlike some others on this list.
Dungeons & Dragons Online
This is a unique case, and I want it here to show how Xfire can still help us figure out what is considered a paying customer, compared to a freebie player. Recently Turbine has stated that they have "1 Meeelllion players" (note the pinky held next to my cheek as I say this..). In so many words; Turbine. The leader of misleading statements.If we read further into the press release this came from, we also see these words..."paid subscriber base has more than doubled"....AHA. DDO at one point...before the "Free to Play" model, was noted as either having 25k or 50k players subbing. What does Xfire say they have now?
930 x 120.05 = 111,647 subs. So, 1 million players, yes, but I still say 100k plus subscribers paying a monthly fee. Now, this also does not take into account how many people pay for extras (and are not subbed). I still will say it. This hybrid model that DDO has is truly the way other games with low subs should go. We are guaranteed that Turbine is turning some very nice profits right now.
Everquest 2
I always wish to throw this one in there. This game is hard to pigeon hole, because we hardly see or hear about this game, and I always wonder what SOE needs to keep a game afloat. I always want to include Vanguard also (to show what a real failure looks like)...but, for now, EQ2 is good, as we know they have a dedicated playerbase, but not a huge sub lot (at least based on what we know and see).
293 x 120.05 = 35,175 subs. Now, is this really profitable? Has the game been out long enough to make back it's money? I guess it does help that they force players to repurchase EVERY expansion every time they launch a new one (almost 40 bucks a box every 6-8 months). Maybe all along EQ2 has made it's money off of the two-boxers and those who purchase new expansions at launch. For now, low player rates, but dedicated players keep EQ2 afloat.
The argument I keep hearing is Xfire cannot be used as a valid tool for these numbers. I will continue to disagree, as these numbers clearly show a lot of matching data with what we know about these games. We can never be 100% sure, but if I need to know how well a game is doing, I can look at Xfire and get a rough guesstimate.
The Calc I have continues to show some interesting data to this day, and as long as we have this tool, I will continue to try and use it to help me see how well these games are doing.
If you are ever worried about if you should play a game depending on if there are enough players to group with, etc, then try Xfire and see if it is doing well there.
Cheers
Thursday, December 24, 2009
Lord of the Rings Online - And so it came to pass...
Well, my little verse on LOTRO was just posted over at Scaryboosters blog today...a little piece I like to call
Basically since we had our major power outage this past weekend, I really did not get much time to play. But, I made every effort I could to log in on the first day of the free schedule that LOTRO offered, which started on the 17th of December.
And it was dismal. Thus, my little Christmas verse above.
I continue to try and find the love people have for this game, but I just do not grasp it. So many problems pop up (and not "bugs" per se, but concerns over how they decided to make the gameplay, visual quality, etc...), that for me, it is near impossible to even make it through the tutorial.
Is it the lore that people love? Because as an MMO, the gameplay leaves a lot to be desired. As to that "lore", it is weak, thanks to a delivery system for quests being encapsulated within small boxes of teeny fonts.
Speaking of fonts, on a 1080p display, it truly is too small for the normal human eye to read comfortably. You had the capability to change the UI size, but all of the fonts stayed at their set small teeny size 8 levels.
Models have made no progress to be better, with molded faces, painted on outfits and strange rubbery movements (looked like playdoh constantly being stretched) causing me to have fits over how ugly I looked.
Speaking of movements, what is with the broken hip running that makes the characters look like small Mechs running around? Jumping looked silly and running animations were terrible. As well, combat animations were stiff and unbelievable.
All of this would have been fine if gameplay held up, but I really got tired of the quests almost immediately. A game really needs to grab you from the beginning and LOTRO just did not cut it. The tutorial was just oh so, and I felt compelled to log within the first ten minutes. Even the music started to lull me to sleep. The same bits of tinny lutes or horn sounds just was so blah.
I came in with an open mind this time, and played for hours...but, when those hours were spent trying to get a decent playable UI, framerate (one of the few things that DID improve some was performance...but, the popping textures issue still exists) and screen size...I lost all interest when I was told to kill some Midges, and after their deaths, I could not even see their bodies to loot them.
I just do not get it.
So, it is with stockings hung by the chimney with care, I tossed my box of LOTRO heartily into the fireplace with a flare...
I bid you, Goodnight, and good luck trying to pretend that this game is even worth the title of MMO.
"An LOTRO bedtime story…"
Basically since we had our major power outage this past weekend, I really did not get much time to play. But, I made every effort I could to log in on the first day of the free schedule that LOTRO offered, which started on the 17th of December.
And it was dismal. Thus, my little Christmas verse above.
I continue to try and find the love people have for this game, but I just do not grasp it. So many problems pop up (and not "bugs" per se, but concerns over how they decided to make the gameplay, visual quality, etc...), that for me, it is near impossible to even make it through the tutorial.
Is it the lore that people love? Because as an MMO, the gameplay leaves a lot to be desired. As to that "lore", it is weak, thanks to a delivery system for quests being encapsulated within small boxes of teeny fonts.
Speaking of fonts, on a 1080p display, it truly is too small for the normal human eye to read comfortably. You had the capability to change the UI size, but all of the fonts stayed at their set small teeny size 8 levels.
Models have made no progress to be better, with molded faces, painted on outfits and strange rubbery movements (looked like playdoh constantly being stretched) causing me to have fits over how ugly I looked.
Speaking of movements, what is with the broken hip running that makes the characters look like small Mechs running around? Jumping looked silly and running animations were terrible. As well, combat animations were stiff and unbelievable.
All of this would have been fine if gameplay held up, but I really got tired of the quests almost immediately. A game really needs to grab you from the beginning and LOTRO just did not cut it. The tutorial was just oh so, and I felt compelled to log within the first ten minutes. Even the music started to lull me to sleep. The same bits of tinny lutes or horn sounds just was so blah.
I came in with an open mind this time, and played for hours...but, when those hours were spent trying to get a decent playable UI, framerate (one of the few things that DID improve some was performance...but, the popping textures issue still exists) and screen size...I lost all interest when I was told to kill some Midges, and after their deaths, I could not even see their bodies to loot them.
I just do not get it.
So, it is with stockings hung by the chimney with care, I tossed my box of LOTRO heartily into the fireplace with a flare...
I bid you, Goodnight, and good luck trying to pretend that this game is even worth the title of MMO.
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
Power Restored
In case anyone has missed it, North Carolina, my home state, had a very nasty snowstorm. Dumping 3 foot overnight, this is quite the record (at least for as long as I have lived here).
This started early Friday with power flickering through the day, so not much got done but work, and a few hours of LOTRO for my upcoming major re-review for Scaryboosters blog.
Several things happened. I lost power early Saturday and have officially been out until today (Tuesday 12/22). Been a cold few days, with us finally moving to a hotel late Sunday.
My time in LOTRO was short lived. But, I did learn something, and when my post appears on Scarybooster, I will share the LOTRO love.
For now, I am just trying to get warm again, booting up PC's and working on getting water running properly and the whole shebang.
Tough camping weekend, but we are alive and that is what matters. My son (who is 11) was a major trooper and has proven to me that in the face of adversity, he truly has the wherewithal to hold up. What, with a week long trip to Michigan and Rhode Island (basically the Eastern half of the United States during my mothers illness) and then no power thus losing access to his PC and Xbox or TV...he instead worked with us and learned how to entertain himself quite well.
Anyways, hopefully back to gaming soon. Luckily, what little time I did have on a PC, I loaded up the new Divinity 2 demo for the PC, and have finally found my action RPG to replace my love of the Witcher with.
I pre-ordered that bad boy.
Later all.
Friday, December 18, 2009
When MMO's Disappoint
Out of all genres of gaming, one seems to consistently have the buggiest and most unreliable code and support.
That would be MMO's.
Last night we did not play our normal game of EQ2 with the family. My wife actually was the one who did not want to play. I decided to ask why she was not into it (as her main complaint she stated she was "Tired"...and men, we all know this is DEFINITELY not the time to ask questions...but I did it anyways).
Her real reason I found out is because EQ2 disappointed her.
Originally this started when we enabled each of our accounts. My son and myself all had these goodies in our claim window. My wifes account was missing quite a few claimable items. So, while my son and I had cloaks running us 25% faster than normal, here was my wife trying to keep up.
I sent this into support, which took about 4 days to handle the issue. But, it was fixed...luckily.
So, we went on our merry way. This past week was exciting as we all were working on the new quest/achievement that EVERYONE gets...the Level 20 quest in 14 days.
We all started at the same time, same day and made all efforts to complete this. On Wednesday night, my son dinged first. I dinged 20, and we all saw a window pop up congratulating us with gold and a trophy and our first real title.
My wife dinged 20...and nothing. We looked at her history, and looked to see if she had the title.
Nothing.
The frustration was just too much for her I think. She even logged in before supper for about 10 minutes and tried to enjoy the game, but finally said that EQ2 disappointed her.
This is one of the reasons she refuses to log into LOTRO, another game with bizarre issues. The laggy hitching issues we always had, no matter what we did (and I ALWAYS have top of the line equipment and keep my systems pristine and well cleaned of junk, yet, we always had this ongoing issue) irritated her. The fact the game had little niggling problems like animations and ugly models. Combat felt unresponsive and the UI just did not seem consistent...she decided she would never play again.
Look at Age of Conan. Still a buggy mess after the multitude of patches. We finally got to the point that during most of our gameplay, if we would run into a problem, we would just laugh and say "We were funcommed again". We also realized that this became more rampant as we reached higher levels. Thus, it was easy to say goodbye to a game that we all loved.
I understand MMO's are large code bases and there are just too many angles to consider when finally launching and running your game. But, when titles like WoW and EQ2 which have been out for years and years still have stupid issues that are unexplainable...how do you tell the standard game player, like my wife, who has played many single player RPG's, or even Guild Wars which consistently ran and displayed no major bugs that would make you want to quit...and help them understand "This is normal".
But, I also need to ask. Why should it be?
I know a lot of people will rant and rave with the stupid comment of "It's only a game". Yet, what would YOU do if you logged in one day and find out that an expansion you payed for was blocked off from you...for no reason, and that content was unaccessible? That happened to ALL of our accounts in EQ2 yesterday when I saw that my login screen which always said 9/9 addons, said 8/9 addons. And when I log into all our accounts management and see that each of us do not have access to the Shadow Odyssey pack, and SOE wants us to pay $20 to have it? Oh brother...another duel with Customer Support.
My wife finally did end up saying she will play again this weekend, but for last night, she had been hurt by a game she was really enjoying.
Why should she even have to feel this way?
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Lord of the Rings Online - Is it me?
Or is it something else? Something more within the game itself that keeps me from thinking it is worth the time or effort to even load up on my PC.
Well, this weekend my decision about LOTRO has been made.
Has it really made progress since launch. Or is it the same old crud I always just wanted to rip my hair out about.
Next week, Scarybooster will be out of town, and needed some bloggers to help him out as he gets his animal change to a cross between a transvestite and a beetle, with lion legs and crows feet (for eyes...). I offered my assistance for a post, but, I needed fodder for my post. Well, Turbine was kind enough to hand me a free weekend (Source) for me to take for a spin, and see if all the time I have been away has mellowed me.
I actually have become kind of easier to please in some arena's. For example, I do not HATE Warhammer Online as much as I did at launch, and they have made progress. I was able to go back to EQ2 and I am having a blast.
But, as many who read my blog know, my LOTRO hate is something more...something seething under the surface, waiting to make me feel all Hobbity in that Turbine special way (i.e: I will ALWAYS feel like I have a full diaper as I run around in their world...)
It's preciousss iz nots so preciousss to me'sss
*Hrmmm*
Anyways...
What was it about LOTRO and this deep seated feeling of gut wrenching horror that drove me away? The forced grouping to complete major quest lines? The horrid performance that made uber hardware feel sluggish with all the hitching? The need to kill so many bears and wolves and boars that the genocide of these creatures became the all encompassing mission? The fact my guy had a size two waist? The fact my female avatars all had hands as large as their heads? Where was the fun and glory of most MMO's? Why did I feel like it was always a "been there, done that" kind of rat race for that next kill 10x quest?
As you can see, I have a lot that I am asking of LOTRO. I did not enjoy the crafting at the time, but I have changed since those times. I also understand the grind concept, and as long as I have my team (the family) the grind seems to disappear. Who knows...maybe grouping may even be fun?
So, this weekend, LOTRO is back on my list of "Try it again" games.
I need to know "Can we ever go back?"
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