Monday, January 10, 2011

The X-Fire Game: SUB-strata

This week has shown an interesting change in our report for X-Fire. Almost all games were up across the board. Last weeks listing may have been premature in showing who is playing what.
But, as we will see, two games DO seem to be losing ground though.

My hope is after this report, we can track properly as all players should be back in game after the holidays.

Several notes. If you do not know about the X-Fire game, please head HERE and HERE to see how this is played. I will be attempting to play the "subs" game this round with new calculations I got last week. We also have added a new MMO that I really should have added a long time ago: EvE Online!

I am disappointed about the holiday return as it does not allow me to see what changes, if any the games may have had with the "RIFT" effect. Maybe next beta? Anyways...

Lets get this ball rolling...

Champions Online
86 x 215.5 = 18,533 subs
Champions continues to trail the bottom of our reports. Mind you, it is NOT the lowest of MMO's out (for example Vanguard is in considerably worse shape). There is no doubt that this super hero game has not fared well. 
Even though it is not within the purview of this report, City of Heroes ranks #127 and has 181 X-Fire players...thus beating out CO (CoH is NOT on the list due to age and CO is being watched for when it goes Free To Play). 

Expect this game to take off if Free to play ever launches.

Final Fantasy XIV
192 x 215.5 = 41,376 subs
My how the mighty do fall. Square Enix really made some major mistakes. And even FREE to play is not helping this failure out. FFXIV is one of two games that fell this week from previous reports. It continues to fall weekly. I have not seen this since Age of Conan's launch. Keep an eye on this one, as Rift will make this game one spoken of in hushed tones in the backrooms and board rooms of how not to launch an MMO...

Warhammer Online
275 x 215.5 = 59,263
Well, a small rise for another game that has fallen considerably on these charts. WAR seems to be weathering the current changes from their patches. But, the damage has been done. These numbers are not good, and the distance between this game and it's cousin, Age of Conan (launched the same year, same premise of PvP and had a horrible launch as well...) has grown over the last year. Unless WAR gets it together I expect it to fall out of the X-Fire top 100.

Age of Conan
335 x 215.5 = 72,193
This has been pretty much par for course for Age of Conan. It has held steady in the 70's for quite a while with the same number of players holding on. Special events and the expansion launch brought this game up earlier this year (even beating LOTRO). But, I expect this will now be the story and even some loss after Rift releases.

Star Trek Online
402 x 215.5 = 86,331
A turn of events for Star Trek Online...voted most popular MMO of 2010 at Massively. Could that poll have had any effect on the game as a result of winning those honors? The numbers have steadily risen, and is beating out WAR and AoC for their spots on this chart. Will this last?

Dungeons & Dragons Online
501 x 215.5 = 107,966
For a game that was bordering utter failure, Free To Play seems to be the way to fix just such a catastrophic release. The game was not bad either, just not what most people expected of a pay for MMO. Free to play suited DDO quite well, and these numbers corroborate this.

EvE Online
2229 x 215.5 = 480,350
New to our round-up due to popular demand, EvE opens with a killer showing. EvE has been resting within the top 50 for the longest time, but this right here is where it has held on the most. Great sub numbers accompany the only really successful Sci-Fi MMO on the charts...or of any Sci-Fi MMO...period.

2141 x 215.5 = 461,386
This is our second game on the chart to show loss this week. Aion has been a game that has held a high spot on these charts for quite a while, but has seen some major cracks as of late. Could this fall be part of the Rift effect?

Lord of the Rings Online
3000 x 215.5 = 646,500
Still our Number 1 game of the X-Fire chart listings on my site. This number proves interesting historically as well. Just last week on the Ten Ton Hammer podcast, Turbine had announced tripling of revenue since going free to play. This helps corroborate some older data too...if the X-Fire Game can be trusted.
A post from March of 2010 was done playing the X-Fire sub game (SOURCE) which did the calc before LOTRO went free to play.  They had 213,689 subs according to the math. Triple that and we get 641k. That is SCARY close to what we have now. The only concern is that maybe not all of these players can be considered monthly due to the Free to play mechanic. But, I am not one to argue with the Karmic like nature of the math here.

That wraps up this weeks X-Fire game. Time keeps ticking along as we get close to a new launch (DC Universe). Will see how that relates to Champions and City of Heroes. And of course Rift is on the way, and a Free to play launch for Champions.

2011 - expect excitement in the MMO market.


Longasc said...

STO's only competitor in 2010 was FF XIV. Among the blind...

This said, STO is improving and the space combat itself is very fun. It is not what many people expected and it has some outright bad parts, but I am still playing it, after all. Also think of the many Trek fans and those that for some reason don't like to play EVE. STO is definitely less complex and more casual friendly.

I wonder if SWTOR will affect STO and EVE. While SciFi the Star Wars universe is a lot like a fantasy tale as well, so let's see.

2011 is a year of heavyweights. Rift, SWTOR, GW2, TERA, rumors or Diablo 3 (maybe not MMORPG per se, but close enough for me).

I wonder if they will cannibalize each other and which one will be the big winner.

Jayedub said...

I love these posts! I honestly can't believe Aion is doing so well, I thought that game was suppose to be on it's death bed.